Poor GDP Numbers

Citigroup (remember, the ‘c’ is pronounced ‘sh’) just announced it raised $12 billion in an FDIC-backed bond sale.  Freddie Mac will request $35 billion from the Treasury, subject to change as it finalizes its financial statements.

China and the UK are boldly heading over a cliff; the headline 1.5% Q4 GDP decline for the UK is not annualized, and thus corresponds to a 6% drop using the American reckoning.  Similarly for China, the reported 6.8% Q4 GDP growth is zero or negative using the seasonally adjusted at an annual rate (SAAR) method.  Other data for China, e.g. a 7.9% y-o-y drop in electrical production, help confirm this.

Given that many consider the bond market a refuge in time of poor equity performance, I’d like to point out that most funds do not fall into the “cash or short term treasurys” category that I currently consider safe.  This may become especially relevant later this year.

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