Short Updates

A few items on my mind, deserving of note:

  • Goldman’s Cohen’s touting a 1050 target on the S&P.  While once a perfectly reasonably number for a bear market rally, I now almost feel compelled to load up on puts.  (And would not be particularly surprised to learn that Goldman’s trading desk was doing the same.)
  • The behavior of the administration (past and present) in strong-arming investors into making poor decisions in an attempt to continue papering over gaping wounds in the financial system.  Bernanke and Paulson’s threats to Ken Lewis of Bank of America are the largest example, though rumor has it such pressure was also applied in an attempt to avoid a Chrysler bankruptcy.
  • Also, I hear more than a few comments of the “now is the time to buy” sort.  This should also be addressed in a full post, but my position still remains that we are looking at a deflationary severe recession or depression.  In short, I expect further significant declines (30-50%) in both housing (Case-Shiller) and equity (S&P 500) indices.

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