Possible last post from an Iranian blogger:
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/before-the-battle.html
Neda video (graphic):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrdRwOlmIxI
Other updates:
http://greenrevolutioniran.blogspot.com/
http://www.persianhaps.com/
I was impressed by the scale of protests inside Iran this past week. One particular image caught my eye; that of a protester helping a riot policeman out of the crowd. It’s only a brief image, and hard to draw conclusions from, but does give evidence that these are ordinary men and women out there in the streets; not some fringe radicals.
The Twitter threads are updating far faster than I can read. Video was captured of a young woman shot in the heart; her name was Neda and it now becomes a rallying cry. Some sort of chemical (lye?) is reported being dumped from helicopters, and APCs are in the city streets. (STRATFOR reported a few days ago that the IRGC had taken over internal security for Tehran.) Some tweets warn of Basij marking or breaking into houses, others give first aid information and warn about wearing contact lenses.
Today likely marks a key turning point; if the protests survive and grow larger, I expect the security forces will be overwhelmed or co-opted. Finally, two researchers at Columbia University have some interesting comments about the official election “results”.
In an interview with ABC News’ Terry Moran, President Obama made a few comments about nationalization.
MORAN: There are a lot of economists who look at these banks and they say all that garbage that’s in them renders them essentially insolvent. Why not just nationalize the banks?
OBAMA: Well, you know, it’s interesting. There are two countries who have gone through some big financial crises over the last decade or two. One was Japan, which never really acknowledged the scale and magnitude of the problems in their banking system and that resulted in what’s called “The Lost Decade.” They kept on trying to paper over the problems. The markets sort of stayed up because the Japanese government kept on pumping money in. But, eventually, nothing happened and they didn’t see any growth whatsoever.
Sweden, on the other hand, had a problem like this. They took over the banks, nationalized them, got rid of the bad assets, resold the banks and, a couple years later, they were going again. So you’d think looking at it, Sweden looks like a good model. Here’s the problem; Sweden had like five banks. [LAUGHS] We’ve got thousands of banks. You know, the scale of the U.S. economy and the capital markets are so vast and the problems in terms of managing and overseeing anything of that scale, I think, would — our assessment was that it wouldn’t make sense. And we also have different traditions in this country.
Obama: No ‘Easy Out’ for Wall Street, 2009-02-10
On the face of it, we have two paths, one right and one wrong. Tradition apparently dictates the wrong one. I say tradition, because while this country has thousands of banks, many are healthy. As Kedrosky notes, that objection ignores the relative GDPs of the two countries as well as the fact that the six largest banks represent the lion’s share of the problem.
It is possible Obama does not feel there is sufficient political support for nationalization, and so will run with the current plan until attitudes are more favorable. I acknowledge that this is only conjecture, but feel it appropriate to ascribe some measure of strategic planning to this administration.
China’s statistical bureau reported that industrial production for November grew 5.4% year-over-year according to Bloomberg. The more interesting quote from the article is this:
Electricity output fell by 9.6 percent from a year earlier. Pig-iron production fell 16.2 percent. Raw steel declined 12.4 percent. Steel products tumbled 11 percent.
To echo the concerns of another CR reader, what is the break-even number for China due to the increase in urban population? More critically, the drop in electrical output does not jive with the production numbers. I would be very concerned.
The China number means nobody is buying here. Who finances our government? I just had this mental picture of the US economy flying through the air. It’s a 4 engine jet and we lost number 1 and 2 engines awhile back. Now number 3 just flamed out.
- nova, 2008-12-14
On a side note, it appears that North Korea has closed down both the northern and southern borders. 150,000 Chinese troops are now massed along the northern border, most likely as a prophylaxis against the collapse of the Kim regime. Given North Korea’s precarious position and nuclear status, it is safe to assume that most players in the region are very interested in stabilizing the country and securing any loose buckets of instant sunshine.
Courtesy of Stratfor, here is some excellent background reading.
Georgia and Kosovo: A Single Intertwined Crisis
By George Friedman
The Russo-Georgian war was rooted in broad geopolitical processes. In large part it was simply the result of the cyclical reassertion of Russian power. The Russian empire — czarist and Soviet — expanded to its borders in the 17th and 19th centuries. It collapsed in 1992. The Western powers wanted to make the disintegration permanent. It was inevitable that Russia would, in due course, want to reassert its claims. That it happened in Georgia was simply the result of circumstance.
There is, however, another context within which to view this, the context of Russian perceptions of U.S. and European intentions and of U.S. and European perceptions of Russian capabilities. This context shaped the policies that led to the Russo-Georgian war. And those attitudes can only be understood if we trace the question of Kosovo, because the Russo-Georgian war was forged over the last decade over the Kosovo question.
It’s a petition. Like attending a protest, every so often it’s appropriate to make a statement. I say that even though I’ve told the lightbulb[0] joke and only attended one protest “in earnest”. We stand on the precipice of what is likely the greatest financial crisis in generations. The multi-billion dollar losses you may have heard about on the news? That’s the sound of cracks forming. The actual collapse will be truly spectacular.
You can find it at http://financialpetition.org. It calls on Congress to restore responsible lending practices, ban off-balance-sheet vehicles, restore the recently-gutted remnants of Depression-era banking regulation, and most importantly, to allow failure. Realize that at this point, scary as it may be, you are the adult in the room. So step up.
[0] “How many protesters does it take to change a lightbulb?”
“None, protesters can’t change anything.”
What Hezbollah has accomplished is interesting in two ways. First, it has demonstrated a viable and low-cost defense strategy against a modern military. Ian Welsh has written an excellent assessment of the situation at the Agonist. Second, it represents the first time an Arab force has been able to go up against the IDF with demonstrable success. The importance of this should not be underestimated; the idea of Israeli invincibility has influenced decision-making throughout the region for many years. Israel is not yet vulnerable, but it will be, and everyone knows it. Combined with demographic shifts, the Israelis have no more than a half-century in which to engineer a peace. (I do not mean that it is their responsibility; I mean that it is necessary for their survival.)
It is with much relief that I note the overthrow of a few incumbents in last night’s Primaries. While Ned Lamont had an early 20 point lead over Joe Lieberman in the Connecticut race, the gap narrowed as the evening wore on before settling on a 4 point difference. I was interested in this race, as it was an important indicator of the forces working to revitalize the Democratic Party.
The focus on Lieberman has been nationwide, even if the voters where limited to a single state. For them, the issues may have been simpler; a move against a representative who had ceased to represent. For the nation as a whole, his defeat removed a “Fox News Democrat” from the party and showed the growing influence of the progressive movement in challenging the flawed strategies of the major Democratic institutions.
Also, in a strike against the other extreme of the party, Cynthia McKinney has also been defeated in Georgia. The victor, Hank Johnson, ran on a platform of “anyone but McKinney” to claim 59% of the vote. Reports indicate Johnson is a moderate who should help bring some dignity to the seat.
This is prompted in part by the recent news of the Episcopalian House of Deputies voting to reject a ban on gay clergy, a few days following the announcement that a human female was elected to lead the Episcopal Church.
The Protestant Reformation can be viewed, in part, as a reaction to corrupted doctrines within the Catholic Church. To fully understand the Reformation, one must also realize the social, political, and economic mores of the era, which provided the driving motivation for a schism that took doctrinal differences for its raiment. However, the perception of a reality often matters more than reality itself, especially in matters that involve the masses. With the growth of large-scale democratic institutions, we must realize that the original forces at play are no longer relevant, while the public perceptions of them have taken on an existence of their own.
There are a few news stories on the wire today about Robert Byrd becoming the longest-serving U.S. Senator. What grabbed my eye was this paragraph:
In many ways Byrd is out of synch with today’s political scene, quoting from the Bible and citing Roman history in his speeches. He carries a copy of the Constitution in his breast pocket.
-Andrew Taylor, AP
I have some words for Mr. Taylor, and they’re not exactly complimentary.