2009.08.26
Posted in Personal at 06:48 by requiem
Over the past few years I’ve managed to pare down my luggage requirements to a single carry-on bag and a briefcase. (Rick Steves offers some useful advice in this area.) My present trip has seen a similar reduction in the amount of stuff I carry with me on a daily basis. To select a particularly appalling example, I climbed the Great Wall carrying both a bag (containing lunch items, water, and other “essentials”), Nikon D40, and a generously-sized umbrella from the Beijing Intercontinental. To be fair, the umbrella doubled as a walking-stick and there was a decent chance of rain, but the combined weight in the face of oppressive humidity suggested I seek alternatives.
I have since traded my passport for a photocopy, the Nikon for an ultra-compact Canon IXUS 100IS, and left the bag at home. The IXUS 100IS (the SD780in the U.S.) is the smallest of Canon’s current line, can hide behind a credit card, and easily disappears into a pocket thanks to its rounded corners. While I still bring the Nikon when the situation demands, the Canon has become my daily carry.
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2009.08.24
Posted in Econ at 07:30 by requiem
I’m having far too much fun in Beijing to put together a decent post, but the temptation to send out another “find an exit” email grows ever stronger. Looking at my archives, the last time I sent such an email was September 20, 2008. This rally still has space in which to run, but it appears to be nothing more than a standard bear market rally. I will instead throw out some recent quotations for your amusement.
In the past, I have gone so far as to imply the Realtors group are spinmeisters. This month, I will be more blunt: Their actual data has become untrustworthy, their spokesmen lie for a living, and their “news releases” is little more than misleading junk.
- Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture, 2009-08-24
“No, no. That’s not the one you want. You want FAS!”
- An airline stewardess commenting on Tom Sosnoff’s chart of FAZ, the financials ultra-short ETF. (This is a Joe Kennedy Shoeshine Boy moment.)
In what can only be attributed to a rogue computer blowing a vacuum tube, virtually all the names in the credit universe were wider over the past week, despite an equity market ripping, or, more specifically, AIG, FNM and FRE ripping and everyone piggybacking for the ride in a few bankrupt companies.
- Tyler Durden, zero hedge, 2009-08-24
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2009.08.17
Posted in Econ at 06:20 by requiem
I have been somewhat a fan of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s black swan idea, although not without reservations. A black swan is by definition unpredictable, and yet the current financial meltdown was hardly a surprise to anyone who cared to look. I am therefore pleased to mention a new entry into our statistical bestiary, that of the dragon king. In his paper Dragon-Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises, Didier Sornette identifies statistical outliers to data sets that otherwise follow power law distributions. Such outliers appear to be the result of positive feedback mechanisms, and two interesting hypotheses may be drawn: that they are both more common than expected, and also predictable.
“Million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.”
- Granny Weatherwax, Equal Rites, by Terry Pratchett
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2009.08.15
Posted in Personal at 10:06 by requiem
…apple pie made from Polish vodka, in this case. We need to keep our heads down for a few more days, but at least we’re outside the perimeter.
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2009.08.14
Posted in Personal at 19:09 by requiem
Yesterday one of the teachers called to ask us to keep contact to a minimum. The day passed most quietly. That night I could hear music streaming in from a party across the street. Today is day 4, and my temperature this morning was 36.2.
The hallways feel empty, but those small panels between the rooms aren’t just decorative. You could conceal a small army in them, and some appear to connect between floors.
I’ve attached pictures of some of the quarantine measures below. The windows open to a limited extent, but the interior vents have been sealed. Emergency exits have been sealed with strips of paper to discourage casual use. The front of the hotel has two layers of barricades and high levels of visibility. The periphery of the site has guards at fixed points and on patrol, but dense shrubbery and outbuildings serve to significantly reduce visibility.
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Posted in Personal at 18:12 by requiem
Morning and afternoon temperatures: 36.8, 37
A few people have managed to win their release; our English friend was able to quickly argue his way out. Another two have managed to arrange leaving the following day.
We played cards, and watched Slumdog Millionaire. Despite the slow Internet connection, I’ve managed to pull down The International with Clive Owen and To Catch a Thief with Cary Grant and Grace Kelly. Season 1 of Mad Men is still in the queue.
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2009.08.12
Posted in Personal at 00:39 by requiem
This morning I received a call from Ted at the embassy inquiring as to my well-being. Ted said that they expect to receive a list of all Americans but had not received it. I gave him a description of the situation and some estimates of the number of people. He also said that the embassy had sent some boxes of books and movies which may still be around.
My estimate is that at least 40 people are in quarantine here; we had 7 people in our ambulance, and there were at least 5 ambulances. A few more people have also arrived today. The procedure for meals is that we walk down a buffet line and indicate the items we would like. The masked and gowned staff package everything to go, and we return to eat in our rooms. The first meal I had (lunch) was one of the most nutritious I have had so far, with significant portions of vegetables. (My diet for the previous week featured largely rice and meats.)
We have procured playing cards, and those with outside contacts are working to arrange additional supply drops. Our talkative English friend was in this afternoon’s arrivals, and I expect he will take full advantage of what room-service is available. I’m not sure if it was intentional, but included in the books sent by the embassy is a copy of the Worst Case Survival Handbook. I did not see a copy of José Saramago’s Blindness, which is perhaps for the best.
My temperature this morning: 36.6 degrees.
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Posted in Personal at 00:24 by requiem
Yesterday afternoon we had gathered to watch some Beijing Opera, only to be told that the even was cancelled and that we must return to the dorms. Word slowly trickled down that there had been a few cases of H1N1 and that we were to be placed in quarantine. To save typing, below is the email I sent to the American embassy.
———- Forwarded message ———-
From: XXXX XXXX <xxxx>
Date: Wed, Aug 12, 2009 at 9:21 AM
Subject: In Beijing, have been quarantined
To: <embassy email>
Good morning,
I and others of my summer session at Beijing Normal University were
moved into quarantine late last night/early this morning. (We were
finally moved to the quarantine hotel about 2 am.) Current location
appears to be the Yanxiang Hotel at A2 Jiangtai Road in the Chaoyang
District. We are told that we will be kept in quarantine for 5 days.
I believe there are a few other Americans here, but only other name I
know at the moment is XXXX XXXX. (Most of the others I know are
Italian or Polish.) The [rumored] reason for the quarantine is that a
couple of students (Japanese, possibly Korean) from the No. 2
international students dormitory had contracted the H1N1 virus.
Daily temperature tests will be taken at 0900 and 1600; it appears to
be taking them some time to reach everyone this morning as I only just
now hear voices in the hall. My temperature at arrival was normal.
Regards,
XXXX
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2009.07.28
Posted in Personal at 21:18 by requiem
I’m due to fly to Beijing this Friday, and already I have plenty of work ahead of me. Fortunately some of the more urgent tasks have been resolved, albeit only to make room for their successors. The process of preparing not-too-cryptic clues for my colleagues continues apace.
Taking a page from my last trip, I expect to fit everything I need for a month’s stay in a single carry-on, with a briefcase for the tablet and camera. I will check an additional garment bag on the assumption that I will be retaining the services of Senli and Frye. The question remains of which lenses I should bring; I am leaning towards a single fast prime and a zoom. Perhaps the 50/1.8 and the 18-200, though the 35/1.8 and the Tokina 11-16 present compelling arguments. My iPhone will remain at home and in its place will be my Blackberry.
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2009.07.10
Posted in Econ, General at 08:08 by requiem
Bob Shiller’s original chart of historic home values back to 1890 was originally published in 2006. The four charts below provide an interesting perspective.
The original:
With projections overlaid:
Updated, December 2008:
Updated, June 2009:
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