This is another station-keeping post. Energy prices (oil, coal, etc.) have been going parabolic, a phenomenon that almost always ends in a relatively quick collapse. Will oil go back down to 70, or stay over 100? That I don’t know, but demand destruction is the tried and true fix for high prices, and it’s something a recession is great at doing. The peak might have been a few trading days ago, or it might be in the next few weeks. Either way, like the bear market rally we saw, I think this run is due to end. As to the broader market, remember, bear market rules still apply: Don’t buy the dips, do sell the rallies, and if you can’t trade, sit things out in cash.

I recently bought a Nikon D40 (digital SLR). I have a few decent lenses for it, Nikkor 50mm f/1.8 and 18-200mm f/3.5-5.6. I’d also like to get the Tokina 11-16mm f/2.8 for an ultrawide, but I may hold off a bit. Thanks to the Safari Bookshelf I’ve worked my way through Scott Kelby’s The Digital Photography Book (both volumes) and Joe McNally’s The Moment It Clicks. Ken Rockwell’s web site is also very helpful, as were a few articles on photo.net. How do I know I’ve been reading too much? When I glance at the screen saver on the iMac next to me and instead of my brain going “ooh.. what a pretty picture of water droplets on an autumn leaf”, it thinks “oh, the photographer was using a ring flash”.

A quick lunchtime update, since I have a few posts marinating in draft form. My reading list has ballooned; I’m trying to finish The Omnivore’s Dilemma whilst simultaneously working my way through the last of the Honor Harrington books and starting on Robert Greene’s works.

This rally in the markets has been running for almost two months now; I’ve been staying mostly clear of it, but did dip my toes in at a few points before being stopped out. For the S&P 500, I’m looking for it to spend a little time above the 200 MA and for the RSI to match the highs of last October.  It feels almost played out, and if that’s the case, the turn should be in the next few weeks.

The fundamentals continue to deteriorate. It was only last week I saw a Financial Times article suggesting the ECB is starting to suspect banks are using them as a dumping ground for toxic securities.  The Fed (in concert with the ECB and the Swiss) is now accepting auto loans and credit card debt as collateral.  This buys only three or four more months before the Fed runs out of balance sheet.

My Mandarin classes finished up earlier this month, and that frees up some time for reading and other projects.  I haven’t seen much in the way of summer classes (in any field) that appealed to me, so I’ll likely find something to study on my own.  Travel also remains likely.